Yesterday, @ProductiveOuts posed the following question:
as discussed on PRODcast 28, WHY THE HELL would KCR be looking to trade prospects right now? Won't be competitive til when, 2015? None sense—
Productive Outs (@ProductiveOuts) November 29, 2012
Which got me thinking, why would a team trade their best prospect when they have a team that won’t be near its peak for 2-3 more years? @ProductiveOuts (I’m not sure if it was Ian or Riley, so I will act as if the are one entity) and Craig Goldstein gave a number of responses which were all plausible, but which one is correct? Note: It was pretty apparent that none of us like the idea of dealing Wil Myers, something Craig noted here.
(1) @HypeProspect – They know something we don’t.
@ProductiveOuts The only answer is that they know something that others don't.—
Post Hype Prospect (@HypeProspect) November 29, 2012
This is the Occam’s Razor answer, assuming that the Royals know something about Myers that other teams don’t know and want to use it in their favor.
Why is it makes sense: Because we really don’t know what teams know and teams absolutely know things we don’t.
Why it doesn’t make sense: It has become increasingly difficult to totally hide a prospect’s misdoings (think Matt Bush), his performance was so strong and his future is so bright that Baseball America named him their 2012 Minor League Player of the Year.
(2) @ProductiveOuts – Conflicting priorities and pressures that are leading to a terrible decision.
@HypeProspect of course they know stuff we don't, but it could also just be a terrible decision. conflicting priorities & pressures etc…—
Productive Outs (@ProductiveOuts) November 29, 2012
This answer is much more nuanced than the first possibility, but still relies upon Occam’s Razor. The Royals were surprise team in 2011 and their fans became increasingly excited about the next few years. The 2012 Royals struggled despite getting full seasons out of many of their young players, such as Eric Hosmer, Mike Moustakas, and Alcides Escobar, and significant contributions from many young players, such as Salvador Perez and Lorenzo Cain.
Why it makes sense: You may notice that there were no pitching prospects listed, as their prospects have not been able to add value at the Major League level. John Lamb (torn UCL – Tommy John surgery in 2011), Mike Montgomery (general ineffectiveness in the high minors), Chris Dwyer (general ineffectiveness in the high minors), Danny Duffy (torn UCL – Tommy John surgery in 2012), and Noel Arguelles (general ineffectiveness in the high minors) have combined for 133 innings across 26 starts at the major league level, all of which have come from Duffy. There sits Dayton Moore, watching an offense that is ready for prime time (and has reinforcements on the way in the form of Bubba Starling and Jorge Bonifacio) and only sees three pitching prospects left in the minors that look like they may pan out, 2012 #1 pick Kyle Zimmer, Yordano Ventura (whose short-for-baseball stature and lithe frame make him look like a reliever), and Jake Odorizzi. Moore realizes that to compete, he needs more quality starters and has a glut of outfielders, which means he should trade the one that can bring the largest haul: Wil Myers.
Why it doesn’t make sense: Why would anyone trade Wil Myers for James Shields or Jon Lester? As Keith Law said yesterday in his chat:
The Red Sox should take [the Myers for Lester] offer and run. Same for the Rays with Shields.
(3) @cdgoldstein – Their window is shorter than you think, and they may have brought up their core too soon.
@ProductiveOuts They just invested $$ into Guthrie and Ervin. Not saying it's a good idea, but their future isn't SO great either.—
Craig Goldstein (@cdgoldstein) November 29, 2012
@ProductiveOuts I agree of course, but it's not surprising given how they've set themselves up. Wouldn't their window to compete be while…—
Craig Goldstein (@cdgoldstein) November 29, 2012
@ProductiveOuts Hosmer/Moose/Escobar/Perez/Cain are cheap and they can invest in arms? If they can keep Myers it might not be the worst idea—
Craig Goldstein (@cdgoldstein) November 29, 2012
This one builds on the previous option, as the Royals’ surprise contention in 2011 made it seem like a good idea to bring up Hosmer and Moustakas earlier than a point that would have allowed the Royals to squeeze out an additional year of team control.
Why it makes sense: It rests on facts and getting a pitcher for the next few years would vault the Royals to the top of the AL Central to battle with the Tigers (who are aging rapidly). The addition of Odorizzi (who looks ready for the majors on opening day) and Zimmer (shortly thereafter) would mean the Royals suddenly have the makings of a solid rotation to go with their offense.
Why it doesn’t make sense: The Royals window is basically 2014-2016, and it may make sense to let Myers play a season to see what happens. This seems like a panic move made by a fantasy baseball owner.
(4) @ProductiveOuts – Dayton Moore does not know how to build a major league team, but he knows he can build using the minors.
@HypeProspect I guess I'm just a pessimist, at least when it comes to DM & KCR. I don't see them pulling this off.—
Productive Outs (@ProductiveOuts) November 29, 2012
Moore was a scout who worked his way up to the Director of Personnel Management then Assistant General Manager with the Braves. This is his first time as a GM.
Why it makes sense: Moore has done an absolutely amazing job drafting (even if it helps that he has consistently had top picks) and has made some questionable moves at the major league level, including Melky Cabrera for Jonathan Sanchez, extending Jeremy Guthrie, and trading for Ervin Santana.
Why it doesn’t make sense: Moore has clearly realized the Royals need pitching to compete and has traded to get it. He dealt what he viewed as an extra part that wouldn’t be around in a few years in Cabrera to get Sanchez, then dealt the struggling Sanchez to get Guthrie. Guthrie’s contract isn’t much more than the Dodgers gave Brandon League and the Reds gave Jonathan Broxton. Moore also gave up little to get Santana.
So where does that leave us? Sure, Moore would be crazy to deal Myers, but flags fly forever and even “can’t miss” prospects often miss.
Until next time, follow me @HypeProspect.
